Tuesday, February 05, 2019

2019 predictions in L&D... some surprising disappearances...

Great survey from my friend and namesake Donald Taylor. We are sometimes confused (in both senses of the word), but when it comes to what’s hot in workplace L&D in 2019, he’s the go to man. This is the 6thyear of his survey, by nearly 2000 professionals making 5332 votes from 92 countries.

Top three stars

  Personalisation/adaptive learning (1)
  Artificial Intelligence (2)
  Learning Analytics (3)
One could argue that all three of these top spots have been taken by AI. Sure there are aspects of personalized learning and analytics that are not AI, but it’s there, underlying all three top spots. I have spent the last four years saying that Artificial Intelligence is the major shift in learning technologies with a post in 2014, saying My tech prediction for 2015 - two small letters…AI. AI is changing the very nature of work, so it is ridiculous to imagine that it will not also change why, what and how we learn. Having started this journey in AI many years ago, four years ago I made an investment in an adaptive learning company, started my own AI company WildFire and began talking about this at conferences all over the world. To ignore this is to ignore reality and arguably the most important technology shift we've seen since the invention of print.

Three newbies
  Microlearning (5)
  Learning Experience Platforms (6)
  Performance support (11)
I’ve grouped these together as they show an interesting shift in thinking towards the more dynamic delivery of learning. I'd link the to the top three as chatbots and other forms of smart AI delivery are helping them get to learners in the workflow. My fear is that we'll get a fair bit of puff, as people replace the M with an X and deliver the same old stuff.

Three media

  Virtual/augmented reality (7)  
  Mobile delivery (8)
  Video (13)
Characterised by the fact that they’re actually hardware and media defined, they're here to stay. VR/AR is gaining ground, as I thought it would, and we have, at last, a way to deliver learning by doing. Mobile is, of course, everywhere and video is coming of age, as we’re seeing it better integrated into learning.

Three business topics

  Consulting more deeply with the business (9)
  Showing value (10)
  Developing the L&D function (15)
Although all three dropped 5,4 and 3 places respectively, they’re still in respectful positions and it's good to see the profession trying to keep business relevance and professionalism on the table. I'd like to see more attention to research and evidence but we're getting there.

Three bags full

  Collaborative learning (4)
  Neuroscience/cognitive science (12)
  Curation (14)
Collaborative learning is pretty solid, and it’s good to see that the science of learning is still in here. I still find it shocking that many practitioners have no idea what science says about learning and online learning. Lastly curation – bit of an oddball this one but it’s here.

Three goners

  Gamification
  MOOCs
  Badges
Gamification seems to have shot its bolt and disappeared. I think we got fed up with the weak side of gamification, playing Pavlov with learners, so it seems to have run its course. MOOCs have drifted away, more education that L&D – the numbers taking vocational MOOCS are phenomenal but this is not the world of L&D, it is the world of learners (oh the irony). Badges have also gone. That’s a shame but I too changed my mind on these and they seem to have had their day.
Conclusion
Once again, a great insight into how people are thinking. Over the years this has been a pretty good guide to what’s rising, staying around and falling. Well done to Donald Taylor and his team.

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