Thursday, December 22, 2016

Emotional Intelligence - don't waste your time - it's not a 'thing'

The L&D search for fads is always in search of bendwagons to jump on - long after they have left town. So imagine their joy, in 1995, when ‘Emotional Intelligence’ hit HR with Daniel Goleman’s book ‘Emotional Intelligence’. (The term actual goes back to a 1964 paper by Michael Beldoch and has more than a passing reference to Gardner’s Multiple Intelligences.) Suddenly, a new set of skills could be used to deliver another batch of ill-conceived courses, built on the back of no research whatsoever. But who needs research when you have a snappy course title?

EI and performance 
At last we have some good research on the subject which shows that the basic concept is flawed, that having EI is less of an advantage than you think. Joseph et al. (2015) published a meta-analysis of 15 carefully selected studies, easily the best summary of the evidence so far. What they found was a weak correlation (0.29) with job performance. Note that 0.4 is often taken as a reasonable benchmark for evidence of a strong correlation. To put this into plain English, it means that EI has a predictive power on performance of only 8.4%. Put another way, if you’re spending a lot of training effort and dollars on this, it is largely wasted. The clever thing about the Joseph paper was their careful focus on actual job performance, as opposed to academic tests and assessments. They cut out the crap, giving it evidential punch.

EI is a bait and switch
What became obvious as they looked at the training and tools, was that there was a bait and switch going on. EI was not a thing-in-itself but an amalgam of other things, especially good-old personality measures. When they unpacked six EI tests, they found that many of the measures were actually personality measures, such as conscientiousness, industriousness and self-control. These had been stolen from other personality tests. So, they did a clever thing and ran the analysis again, this time with controls for established personality measures. This is where things got really interesting. The correlation between EI and job performance dropped to a shocking -0.2.

Weasel word ‘emotional’
Like many fads in HR, an intuitive error lies at the heart of the fad. It just seems intuitively true that people with emotional sensibility should be better performers but a moments thought will make you realize that many forms of performance may rely on many other cognitive traits and competences. In our therapeutic age, it is all too easy to attribute positive qualities to the word ‘emotional’ without really examining what that means in practice. HR is a people profession, people who genuinely care, but when they bring their biases to bear on performance, as with many other fads, such as learning styles, Maslow, Myers-Briggs, NLP and mindfulness, emotion tends to trump reason. When it is examined in detail EI, like these other fads, falls apart.

Weasel word ‘intelligence’
I have written extensively about the danger in using the word ‘intelligence’, for example, in artificial intelligence. The danger with ‘emotional intelligence’ is that a dodgy adjective pushes forward an even dodgier noun. Give emotion the status of ‘intelligence’ and you give it a false sense of its own importance. Is it a fixed trait, stable over time, that can be taught and learned? Eysenck, the doyen of intelligence theorists, dismissed Goleman’s definition of ‘intelligence’ and thought his claims were unsubstantiated. In truth the use of the word is misleading.

Bogus tests
Worse still, EI has some tests that are shockingly awful. Tests often lie at the heart of these fads, as they can be sold, practitioners trained and the whole thing turned into pyramid selling - a Ponzi scheme. Practitioners, in this case are sometimes called ‘emotional experts’ (I kid ye not), who administer and assess EI tests. However, the main test, the MSCEIT, is problematic. First, the company administering the tests (Multi-Health systems) was found by Føllesdal to be peddling a pig with lipstick. To be precise, 19 of the 141 questions were actually being scored wrongly. They quietly dropped the scoring on these questions, while keeping them in the test. Reputations had to be maintained. More fundamentally, the test is weak, as there are no correct answers, so it is not anchored in any objective standard. As a consensus scored test, it has all the haziness of a drifting, shape-shifting cloud.

EI and leadership
Goleman’s outrageous claims, that general EI was twice as useful as either technical knowledge, or general personality traits, has been dismissed as nonsense, as is his claim that it accounts for 67% of superior, leadership performance. This undermines lots of Leadership training, as EI is often used as a major plank in its theoretical framework and courses. Føllesdal (2013) looked at test results (MSCEIT) of 111 business leaders and compared these with the views of those same leaders by their employees. Guess what – there was no correlation.

Conclusion
The whole sorry affair has all the hallmarks of other HR fads – the inevitable popular book, paucity of research, exaggerated claims, misleading language, the test, ignoring research that shows it is largely a waste of training time. Don’t waste your time and money on this. There are far better ways to assess and train employees if performance is your goal.
For other Ponzi scheme fads see here.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Top 20 myths in education and training

Let's keep this simple.... click on each title to get full critique...

We’re all leaders now, rendering the word meaningless.
Bore learners senseless at the start of every course. 
3. Learning styles
An intuition gone bad
Coloured slide looks good in Powerpoint.
5. Myers-Briggs
Shoddy and unprofessional judgements on others.
Dodgy adjective pushing an even dodgier noun.
Another unnecessary concept.
Playing Pavlov with learners?
9. Diversity training
Inconvenient truths (research) show it's wrong-headed.
Yet another mindless fad.
11. NLP
No Longer Plausible: training’s shameful, fraudulent cult?
They're so last century!
13. Values
Don't be a dick! - the rest is hubris. 
Inefficient, inhibiting and harmful fiction.
15. Piaget
Got nothing right and poor scientist.
Old theory, no longer relevant.
Not what it seems!
10 reasons why it is wrong.
Creative with the truth.
20. Data Analytics
Do bears shit in the woods?

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Why AI needs to drop the word ‘intelligence’

The Turing test arrived in the brilliant Computing Machinery & Intelligence (1950), along with its nine defences, still an astounding paper that sets the bar on whether machines can think and be intelligent. But it’s unfortunate that the title includes the word ‘intelligence’ , as it is never mentioned in this sense in the paper itself. It is also unfortunate that the phrase AI (Artificial Intelligence) invented by John McCarthy in 1956 (the year of my birth), at Dartmouth (where I studied), has become a misleading distraction.
Binet, who was responsible for inventing the IQ (intelligence quotient) test, warned against it being seen as a sound measure for individual intelligence or that it should be seen as ‘fixed’. His warnings were not heeded as education itself became fixated with the search and definition of a single measure of intelligence – IQ. The main protagonist being Eysenck and it led to fraudulent policies, such as the 11+ in the UK, promoted on the back of fraudulent research by Cyril Burt. Stephen Jay Gould’s 1981 book The Mismeasure of Man is only one of many that have criticised IQ research as narrow, subject to reification (turns abstract concepts into concrete realities) and linear ranking, when cognition is, in fact, a complex phenomenon. IQ research has also been criticised for repeatedly confusing correlation with cause, not only in heritability, where it is difficult to untangle nature from nurture, but also when comparing scores in tests with future achievement. Class, culture and gender may also play a role and the tests are not adjusted for these variables. The focus on IQ, a search for a single, unitary measure of the mind, is now seen by many as narrow and misleading. Most modern theories of mind have moved on to more sophisticated views of the mind as with different but interrelated cognitive abilities. Gardener tried to widen its definition into Multiple Intelligences (1983) but this is weak science and lacks any real vigour. It still suffers from a form of academic essentialism. More importantly, it distorts the filed of what is known as Artificial Intelligence.
Drop word ‘intelligence’
We would do well to abandon the word ‘intelligence’, as it carries with it so much bad theory and practice. Indeed AI has, in my view, already transcended the term, as it gained competences across a much wider sets of competences (previously intelligences), such as perception, translation, search, natural language processing, speech, sentiment analysis, memory, retrieval and other many other domains.
Machine learning
Turing interestingly anticipated machine learning in AI, seeing the computer as something that could be taught like a child. This complicated the use of the word ‘intelligence’ further, as machines in this sense operate dynamically in their environments, growing and gaining in competence. Machine learning has led to successes all sorts of domains beyond the traditional field of IQ and human ‘intelligences’. In many ways it is showing us the way, going back to a wider set of  competences that includes both ‘knowing that’ (cogntitive) and ‘knowing how’ (robotics) to do things. This was seen by Turing as a real possibility and it frees us from the fixed notion of intelligence that got so locked down into human genetics and capabilities.
Human-all-too-human
Other formulations of capabilities may be found if we do not focus on the anthropomorphic view of intelligence and learning but rather competences. The word ‘intelligence’ has too much human import and baggage. It makes man the measure of all things, whereas, it is clear that computer power has already transcended our brain in some areas, in terms of storage, exact recall, uploading, downloading, mathematical calculations, chess, driving cars and so on. The whole point of Google search, is not to be like us. It's better than us, with a greter memory, better serch and faster recall. Self-driving cars do not drive like us, they drive better than us. The whole point of the self-driving car is NOT to drive like us, as we kill 1.5 mllion people a yer while driving.
The great Turing did in fact explain that his test was an attempt to transcend the religious idea of man as the measure of all things but his test remains rooted in ’human-all-too-human’ abilities. Searle (1980) rightly criticised Turing’s approach with his Chinese Room argument, where the executor of the scripts in a translation task need know nothing at all about the actual meaning of Chinese or English, yet pass the test i.e. they do not ‘think’. Although this critique, in my view, makes a fundamental error.
Beyond human
Haugland (1997) questions the very idea that you need meaningful understanding of the meaning of Chinese and English at all. Searle seems to be demanding a human, gold-standard of understanding, self-awareness and intelligence. If we free ourselves from the tyranny of human ‘intelligence’ to general problem solving, the problem is no longer a problem.
Let’s take this idea further. Koch (2014) claimed that ALL networks are, to some degree ‘intelligent’. As the boundary for consciousness and intelligence changed over time to include animals, indeed anything with a network of neurons, he argues that intelligence is a property that can be applied to any communicating network. As we have evidence that intelligence is related to networked activity, whether these are brains or computers, could intelligence be a function of this networking, so that all networked entities are, to some degree, intelligent? Clark and Chalmers (1998) in The Extended Mind, laid out the philosophical basis for this approach. This opens up the field for definitions of ‘intelligence’ that are not benchmarked against human capabilities or speciesism. If we consider the idea of competences residing in other forms of chemistry and substrates, and see algorithms and their productive capabilities, as being independent of the base materials in which they arise, then we can cut the ties with the word ‘intelligence’ and focus on capabilities or competences.
Beyond brains
Wonderful as the brain may be, as the organ that named itself and created all that we are discussing, it is a notoriously odd thing. It takes over 20 years of solid educational instruction to turn it into a remotely useful employee or member of society. It is famously inattentive, forgets most of what you teach it (Ebbinghaus -1908), is sexist, racist, full of cognitive baises (Kahneman -2011), sleeps 8 hours a day, can’t network, can’t upload, can’t download and, here’s the fatal objection -  it dies. This should not be the gold standard for intelligence, as it is an idiosyncratic organ that evolved for circumstances other than those we find ourselves in.
Beyond consciousness
We may even be able to move away from that other anthropomorphic obsession - consciousness. Daniel Dennett (1995) in Consciousness Explained, saw it as an epiphenomenon, not necessary for the explanation of actual competence and action. If we can drop the ghost in the machine, the machine itself can be seen as being capable, in a non-anthropomorphic sense. Psychologically, Kahneman (2011) in Thinking Fast and Slow distinguishes between the deliberate, slow rational and logical System 2 and the fast and instinctive System 1. He links unconscious intuitions with conscious decision making but the most interesting facet of his work is that we put too much faith in in human intelligence and judgements. Incidentally, he sees both systems, as being full of cognitive biases. Far from AI offering a world of bias it may be that AI can free us from the world of human biases towards more objective problem solving. The claim that all algorithms are biased, reduces statistics to a useless slogan. Sure there may be bias, but the brain is intrinsically biased and there’s little we can do about this.
If we move beyond brains, beyond inorganic versus inorganic, we can move as Harari (2016) in Homo Deux recommends, towards intelligence as fundamentally algorithmic and uncouple intelligence from humans and consciousness. His argument is that natural selection itself is algorithmic and gave rise to our species and brains, but these algorithms are independent of the substances in which they reside. We must therefore readjust our thinking around intelligence and learning to include wider definitions.
Beyond singular intelligences
Networks, such as the internet, have provided a new substrate, where collective intelligence is also possible, moving the concept of intelligences and capabilities on further. One brain cannot download directly from another or replicate knowledge and skills perfectly, in a fraction of a second. This is already happening in AI. In ‘Cloud robotics’ robots learn from experience but can also learn from each other, as they are networked. Experience and learning are therefore shared across the networked robots. Researchers in Google have already been teaching robots to learn skills in these three ways:
A. Learn motion skills (from direct experience)
B. Learn internal models (physics etc.)
C. Learn skills (human assisted)
In all three cases the learning is faster than one robot on its own with more variation in the learning experiences. So deep learning becomes not only possible from a mix of experience, models and being taught, but also by being pooled.
This concept of pooled learning and competences is something that drops the idea of a brain, human benchmark, or ‘subject’. Technology has become largely networked, which avoids our all too human tendency to hang on to ‘essentialism’. When it comes to our human abilities and what we regard as unique, we often invoke qualities such as ‘intuition’ or ‘thinking’ and ‘consciousness’.  Turing opened up the possibility of “imaginable digital computers“ that would perform astonishing feats of what we would call intelligence or learning without recourse to a brain, soul or irreducible quality such as consciousness. That is becoming a reality. AI is now challenging what it is to be human, intelligent, competent, to think, to learn. The challenges we face are not to mimic humans but to find solutions that we are incapable of thinking of and executing. When Deepmind played its Atari game, it shot round the edge of the blocks and attacked from above, something humans had never thought of. We don’t want flawed human performance. We want performance beyond our capabilities, that is better than human. Humans crash cars and aircraft, kill patients through misdiagnosis and wrong prescribing. We need technology that is better than us. We didn’t go faster by copying the legs of a cheetah, we invented the wheel.
Beyond cognitive computing
Turing clearly foresaw rapid advances in the power of computers and, in the long term, was visionary in his understanding of their potential capabilities. Remarkably, he successfully predicted that computers would have 1Gig of storage by 2000. However, the Turing test itself has been critiqued and is still a contentious area. He was wrong in assuming that “at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted”. Many underestimated the recent advances in technology, machine learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning, that have since allowed AI to do the things that were regarded as unlikely, if not impossible.
Beyond IBMs misleading marketing
But the category mistake is to measure all of this in terms of human performance. This is why IBM's Cognitive Computing is simply misleading. There’s little that’s ‘Cognitive’ about it. That’s not to say that Watson is not useful. I use it myself in WildFire. AI has become much more powerful, with considerable advances in machine learning and in the practical application of such advances. This is partly to do with advances in AI techniques but also technical advances, which Turing predicted, and the rise of the internet and massive data sets. Few dispute the impact of AI on tasks, not just in the automation of manufacturing through robotics but also its impact in what has been seen as the cognitive domain. We just don’t need the language of human cognition to make progress - as that's a lie.
Conclusion
Few would argue that AI has progressed faster than expected, with self-driving cars and significant advances in machine learning, deep learning and reinforcement learning.  In some cases the practical applications clearly transcend human capabilities and competences. We don’t need to see ‘intelligence’ at the centre of this solar system. The Copernican move is to remove this term and replace it with competences and look to problems that can be solved. The means to ends are always means, it is the ends that matter. What is wonderful here is the opening up of philosophical issues around agency, autonomy and morality. We are far from the existential risk to our species that many foresee but there are many more near-term issues to be considered. Ditching old psychological relics is one. Artificial smartness is with us it need not be called 'intelligent'.
Bibliography
Bloom (1956). Bloom's Taxonomy of the Cognitive Domain.
Dennett, D. (1995). Consciousness Explained.
Clark and Chalmers (1998) The Extended Mind
Dreyfus, H., & Dreyfus, S. (1997). Why Computers May Never Think Like People. Knowledge Management Tools, 31-50.
Ebbinghaus, H. (1908). Psychology: An elementary textbook. New York: Arno Press.
Gardner, H. (1983) Frames of mind: The theory of multiple intelligences, New York: Basic Books.
Frey B.C. Osborne M.A. (2013). The Future of Employment, Oxford Martin School.
Harari, Y.N. (2016). Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Harvill Secker, London.
Haugland, J. (1997). Mind design II: Philosophy, psychology, artificial intelligence. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Koch (2014). "Is Consciousness Universal". Scientific American Mind.
Searle, J. (1980). Minds, Brains and Programs. The Behavioral and Brain Sciences.3, pp. 417–424. (1980)
Susskind, R., & Susskind, D. (2015). The Future of the Professions. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Turing, A. M. (1950). I.—Computing Machinery And Intelligence. Mind, LIX(236), 433-460.

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Brexit & Higher ED – an opportunity - don’t panic life goes on

Despite the excellent Chair's instruction, at Online Educa in Berlin, NOT to replay the debate an express personal opinions, we had a caricature and patronising view of 17.4 million Brexit voters from the first two speakers who ignored his appeal. They both reran the rhetoric.
The former Head of HE for the British Council laid into Brexiters “All the correct people said it was dangerous… obvious lies" Then a French woman, who works for a French Minsitry, and had a thin as rice paper grasp of why Brexit has happened, literally showed us images of the Brexit bus and a cartoon accusing Brexiters of being stupid "They all voted on what they saw on the side of a bus" followed by a patronizing cartoon again accusing Brexit voters of being idiots. On and on the patronising slides went - basically 'Woe is me - I'm smart, 17.4 million are stupid', not realizing that the stupidity lay on their own naĂŻve views. Thankfully, Professor Paul Bacsich, who knows a thing or two about such things, came to the rescue, as the last speaker, with some acute observations on Brexit and Higher Education. He was neither pessimistic not optimistic - just realistic. This made a welcome change from the mixture of arrogance and self-pity that seemed to hang over the debate until this point.

Research
Unlike other sectors, HE has already had several Brexit-related concessions from the British Government. One is on Higher Education research, where the Government has agreed to underwrite Horizon funding. In early August the Chancellor Philip Hammond promised, to the universities participating in Horizon 2020, that the Treasury will underwrite the payments, even when specific projects continue beyond the UK’s departure from the EU. This was, in my view, quite generous, as the overvaluation of forced collaboration was often a recipe for 2nd and 3rd rate research. In practice I feel that research comes from all sorts of sources and direct funding by the UK Government may result in more focused, high quality research than the fixed EU structures offer. I've lost count of the number of people who roll their eyes and confirm that much EU research is a total waste of time.
Student support
There was a second promise in October, that European Union students, applying for university places in the 2017 to 2018 academic year, will still have access to student funding support. The UK government has also just announced that the country’s research councils will continue to fund postgraduate students from the European Union whose courses start in the next academic year. There is a utopian view that there is some sort of equitable arrangement across Europe for students moving from one country to another. In practice, it is an unholy mess. With Brexit, it will simply be slightly less messy. The Scots, as Paul said, are likely to go it alone, with some supermarket offer to EU students, which is all about market share.
Fees
English fees are the highest in Europe, and Universities basically charge what they want, within a cap. That is a disgrace but it's a fact. This has nothing to do with the EU, as education is a devolved issue in both the UK and EU. The fundamental problem is raising fees and costs, which Universities are doing, EU or no EU. As Paul says, the real issue here is the rising costs, which needs to be addressed. The justification of very high fees for international students is not at all clear, in terms of pedagogy and services that they get. Brexit may be the jolt to the system we need to address this problem.
There is also the serious issue of EU students having racked up record loan debts of £1.3 billion, a 36 per cent increase from a year earlier. About 11 per cent, or 8,600 former students from the EU have failed to repay their loans after graduation. Not many know that EU students get full student loans from the british Government. There is no effective policy forcing them to pay when they move abroad. This, effectively, has meant the taxpayer foots the bill. That, of course, will disappear post-Brexit,
Student numbers
Visas already existed, and as Universities had to live with this anyway, Paul didn’t see this as catastrophic. There will be drops in numbers from the EU but this means switching marketing to other countries. Students will have to pay higher fees in the long run but no higher than many other foreign students and we do not have to fund their loans. Paul speculated that there might be a new "moderate fees" agreement covering the whole 'European Higher Education Area', a region which few know about but much bigger than the EU and nothing specifically to do with it, and in which the UK remains a member.   
Erasmus
Erasmus projects, according to Paul, are not value for money. I agree. I feel there is little to be gained in terms of social inequality by flying rich students around Europe. These systems are always gamed as the sharp elbows of the middle class, eat into the funds. The fact that offices were set up in each and every country has made it cumbersome and expensive to administer. No great loss and if there are any merits in the system, couldn't the UK buy into a simplified version?  Does anyone know that Turkey is a full Erasmus plus country? In fact there are five non-EU countries in Erasmus+. 
Conclusion

The mistake is to simply defend the status quo and fight for things that will, in practice, change. Far better to grasp this opportunity to change tack. The UK has a world class Higher Education sector, not a European Class sector. This may loosen ties with Europe but force us to look outwards to the bigger pool that is the rest of the world. For example, research and student mobility could more easily link EU countries with US and Commonwealth countries. Indeed the EU used to have EU-Canada and EU-US schemes but dropped them, due to pressure from eth EU. UK funding could bring them back.
Unfortunately, Paul didn’t see visible public signs of Universities doing much rational analysis and planning for Brexit. In fact (thankfully not all) institutions still seemed to be hoping that the whole thing will just go away. Paul hoped that the various quiet chats he had had or overheard in the last few months (continental campuses, online partnerships) and small studies (EU-Commonwealth comparisons) he had been involved in would accelerate, once Article 50 had been invoked.
My view echoes his: Don’t panic – the world will go on. Before there was an EU – we managed. It might not be easy in the next few years but we will manage.