Friday, February 24, 2023

Does L&D take orders & deliver courses like a waiter OR worse, simply serve up food people never ordered in the first place?

Fascinating chat with three people heading up L&D in a major international company. AI has led them to completely re-evaluate their strategy. Key concepts were performance, process and data. What I liked was their focus on that oft-quoted issue of aligning L&D with the business goals - unlike most, they really meant it.

Clearly tired of the old 'waiter taking orders for courses' model, they are shaking things up big time. We concluded that the more appropriate metaphor was actually waiters serving up food which people never ordered in the first place, dishes that the organisation thought would cure you of your selfish ways or be virtuously vegan, hence the 'eye-rolling' when anyone mentions training and HR.

For the first time they felt that the tech was really 'supporting' performance with a shot in the arm from smart tech like ChatGPT. Everyone seemed to be using it, in marketing, prep for meetings, when writing. It's not as if you need to tell people what it is. And it's fiendishly simple to use. It also seemed to create that sense of urgency that Kotter used to talk about, an atmosphere where change was suddenly possible.

They were young, tech savvy, open to new ideas, understood the business needs and I came away feeling that a new generation of people are emerging who understand learning, tech and the art of getting things done. I'm a bit tired of seeing abstract Leadership, DEI, mindfulness, resilience whatever... stuff dished up to people who actually want real and practical help in doing their job. The technology that puts that in the hands of learners has arrived. Performance support will be a teacher or trainer at your fingertips.

We also talked about promoting, the need to see it as 'CHAT'gpt, an iterative process, where you need to understand how to speak to the tech. It's a bit like speaking to an alien from space, as it has no comprehension or consciousness but it is still competent and smart. We have put together 100 prompt tips for learning professionals and taking it out on the road soon. All good in the hood.

Friday, February 17, 2023

7 ways to think and act strategically in your organisation about AI in learning

 If you don’t have a strategy, you will be part of someone else’s strategy” Toffler.

Organisations need to have a strategic view of AI, especially in learning. This is technology that learns itself, that gets better through learning, that is used by learners. It reached 100 million in 2 months, and now hundreds of millions, the fastest ever adoption of a new technology. It is already a global technology.

 

Above all, you need to see it strategically. There is no imperative to use this tech but there is an imperative to consider its use. Sure, it is OK to say no but you should have a reason for saying no, as this is the technology of the age. I've been saying this in three books, lots of articles and a ton of keynotes for 7 years and it is now happening. This is the new internet, only smarter.

 

1. Trick is to get down and use it. AI has been largely invisible. you've been using it for ages. Now it has been foregrounded. It is there right on your table. You can play with this tech because it is online and free. That baseline feel for what it can do becomes quickly apparent, List your top five problems. Then go at it to see of the tools can help.

 

2. But that is not enough. You must get advice on inputs. These tools are only as good as their users ability to use them. Word does not make you a novelist and ChatGPT does not make you a consultant or expert. Prompting, is a skill, a skill that needs to be learned. Having to together a list of 100 prompt tips, this is not easy, as you need to understand how the underlying technology works and how to squeeze the best out of it. 

 

3. Don’t get bogged down in one dimension, such as cheating in assessments. That is a sideshow and simply reveals the weakness of old practices. Think big not small. Think strategically and expansively about the big needs in your organisation. List them and reflect on how these tools can help.

 

4. Take a wider view of AI. It is not all LLMs (Large Language Models). It is used in dozens of other learning contexts. I have outlined many of them in ‘AI for Learning’. Think about applying this technology across the entire learning journey; engagement of learners (marketing also), support, personalisation, adaptive learning, feedback, content creation, curation, performance support and assessment. There has been an explosion of innovation in the first few weeks after the release of ChatGPT - be part of that.

 

5. Think about how this fits the new paradigm of, not courses, but performance support, hitting those sweet spots when learners really need stuff, not loading everything up front in a course. That’s the way things are going - learning in the flow of life. Think learning, not teaching.

 

6. Ask people who have been doing this for some time and get a plan of action, not just a keynote at your conference or quick webinar, although that helps get the ball moving. Create a sense of urgency as this technology is moving faster than you can schedule such events.

 

7. Remember that this is moving fast. It is not about ChatGPT. Within weeks Bing was released, ChatGPT 4 is here, as are other potential services from Google and many others. The new timescale is weeks not months. This is about your strategy for the future not what is available today.

 

I’ve been in this game for a long time doing real projects with real learners in the real world. AI is a big bang event in learning. Happy to help if I can. 


If you need help with strategy, we can help. Contact me on LinkedIN or just email me.


donald.clark@hotmail.co.uk

Monday, February 06, 2023

How to prompt like a PRO! 100 types of prompt in ChatGPT for learning

We have been stuck in a productivity rut for some time. AI promises to release us from ploughing that particular furrow, and release technology driven learning from its current malaise. AI is clearly the technology of the age. Almost all of the large, global tech companies are, in essence, AI companies.

In learning AI changes life and work, and by consequence, what, whenever, when and how we learn. AI promises to deliver adaptive and personalised learning on any topic at low cost freeing education from expensive scarcity. This is because it increases the efficacy, not only of content creation but, more importantly delivery. We see a glimpse of this with Duolingo, now an AI company with a highly effective personalised learning system, that is free. They have now expanded into Mathematics. 

They used to say that information wants to be free. A far better mantra is to say that education wants to be free. First, free from the tyranny of time, having fixed lengths of time to get to competence, fixed timetables, course times and so on. Secondly, free learners from the tyranny of place, having to be somewhere specific, like a lecture hall or classroom.

I explored this in my book ‘AI for Learning’. Accelerating learning, making it readily available, along with semantic search and the many other gifts that AI will bring, should make organisational development that much easier, cheaper, faster and better. This has been the promise of most technology and if we look at the past, technology has, on the whole, delivered. 

Generative AI

Generative AI is still in its infancy, yet achieved instant global awareness with ChatGPT. That impact came from the realisation, often from the first output to the first question you asked, that this has huge potential. It put AI into the hands of millions, made it real. There was the expected negativity, largely born of fear, as is usually the case with new technology in learning, but that quickly gave way to wonder, lots of creative uses and speculation about the future.

It is important not to see generative AI as the only way AI has and will impact L&D. My books ‘AI for Learning’ , 'Learning Experience Design' and ‘Learning technologies’ go across the entire learning journey, showing how AI has already embedded itself into almost everything we do online. In that sense it has been here for at least 20 years in search, in UI, text to speech, speech to text (increasing accessibility), also in learning support, content creation, recommended learning pathways, adaptive, personalised learning, assessment and spaced practice.

Prompt Engineering

What ChatGPT does is allow you to use the tool to teach and learn. Once you have mastered ‘prompt engineering’, knowing how to construct the right input, understanding that ChatGPT is a dialogue system not just a producer of monolithic pieces of text, you can output wonderful things. This is a new skill for learning designers and generative AI allows all sorts of complex prompting using iterations, logic and parameters that improve the output. 

It allows you to improve up-front design, get the juices going with stakeholders, producing objectives, likely competencies and skills, syllabi, even titles for your learning initiatives. To create content one can prompt for full content with the right level of detail and nuance, summaries, images, all in different styles and voices, suitable for different audiences. You can create assessments and assignments with full rubrics for marking, also learning activities for discussions, scenarios and role playing. Beyond this you can prompt for emails, social media content and marketing. We have put together a list of 100 prompt ideas for learning professionals  to allow learning professionals to widen their perspective on this technology which we will be using in planned talks and workshops.

Remember that this is only the start of AI tools that will dramatically improve productivity for teachers, learning designers and learners.


Sunday, February 05, 2023

AI and learning is about to get a massive boost

While ChatGPT has become a global meme, it actually distracts from the many other uses of AI for learning outlined in my book ‘AI for Learning'. This includes uses that lie unseen and invisible, such as AI being the new UI, text to speech, speech to text, translation, adaptive learning, learner support, assessment and spaced practice. Duolingo with its superbly smart algorithms and massive data sets is quietly revolutionising language learning. It is, in essence, an AI company. Of course, the best digital technology is usually invisible.

But another invisible technology is being worked on that will have a huge impact on the learning world – SEMANTIC SEARCH. We have been using this and it is astonishingly powerful. At the moment search is keyword driven and often misfires. Google has become dominant as it uses vast amounts of user data to hone its battery of search techniques, and to be honest, it is pretty good. However, it is not good at searching the motherlode of unstructured data in documents, social platforms, online courses, web pages, PowerPoints and videos you have in your organisation or personal data.

 

Learning technology has recently taken a lurch away from the supply-led LMS, a repository of content and courses, towards the demand-led LXP, which delivers to real needs. Recognising that you actually learn by doing, in the flow of work, you find exactly what you need at that moment, in that context. Performance support has become a big deal.

 

Enter ‘semantic search’ that uses transformers, similar to GPT. It solves an old problem, called the ‘lexical gap’, where search can’t locate co-located meaning. Traditional search matches exact targets, not a range of similar or related targets, so you get lots of misfires. When you turn language into mathematical vectors in a transformer, you capture a word or sentence’s relationship to other words, a bit like family resemblance (a useful metaphorical concept used by Wittgenstein) where words have fathers, mothers, sisters, brother cousins and so on, you can then match the ‘intent’ of the person who searches, more accurately with its intended targets.

 

At the moment this works well with documents up to a certain word limit but rapid progress is being made. Being able to find exactly what you need at any point from within your own organisation’s or personal data, will be a huge leap in functionality. It will transform performance support. It will also move beyond text to searching for images, diagrams and video clips.

 

We will be able to get what we need pulled by search or pushed using algorithmic techniques that embody optimal and personalised pedagogy to you as a learner. In many ways ChatGPT gives us a glimpse into semantic search, as it uses some of these semantic techniques. This is only one of many AI techniques that will hit the learning world. It truly is the technology of the age.

Thursday, February 02, 2023

Education may be the death of us!

Having grown up with the orthodox belief that overpopulation will be the death of us, I now find myself among catastrophists who see low birth rates as the death of us. You can’t win in the catastrophe business!

In the Far East, Japan, having encouraged everyone to work til they drop and blocked immigration, is now sleepwalking into an ageing population, falling birth rate, high state spend future and low productivity collapse. China faces an even bigger problem, living with the consequences of an enforced Maoist prohibition on having children, also an imbalance between men and women - last time I checked boys don’t give birth. They have urbanised quickly killing the birth rate even further.
In Europe, from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, down through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Albania, Greece and Italy the falling population problem has been compounded by an exodus to the richer Western Europe. Economic migrants take the possibility of economic growth with them and leave behind an ageing population, in. a low tax base economy, that need care. Migration is not win-win, it is win-lose. Your young people, who you pay to get educated and trained, flee to richer countries leaving you less able to generate wealth or look after your rapidly ageing population. Eastern and Southern Europe is increasingly becoming a depopulated region, with mass migration out, requiring huge sums to be sent back in by the few EU donor nations who are themselves feeling the crunch. The donor nations in the North and West, about one third, are subsidising the other two thirds in the East and South.
Peter Zaihan’s book ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ goes into real detail on the consequences of this depopulation crisis. One of the interesting features of falling fertility is that people are either not having children at all, having fewer children or fewer children later. Combine this with people living much longer and the median age starts to push up and up, so the pyramid starts to invert.
One of the drivers behind the falling number of children appears to be education. Isn’t is odd that something that is seen as a social good may end up atrophying the total number of people in the social pool. Extending the amount of time young people spend in education - now up to 18, then in Higher Education to 22/23, now a Masters Degree to 23/24 - has been sold as necessary (neat marketing trick). We now have a huge number of people being non-productive during some of their most productive years. They rarely have children during their studies, or afterwards, as they are only starting to build a career in their mid-twenties. As Daniel Dennett says, education turned out to be the most anti-evolutionary cultural trait in our species. He finds it almost impossible to get this empirical fact over to his students - that this may not, in the end, be great for humanity as a whole.
Others such as Goodhart in his book Head, Heart and Hand: Why intelligence is over-rewarded, manual workers matter, and caregivers deserve more respect (2021), plea for the rebalancing of society, economics and rewards away from the Head (cognitive work) towards the Hand (making and manual work) and Heart (health and care work). We have reached what he calls 'Peak Head', the focus on funnelling everyone towards University degrees on a single route towards a single, cognitive elite.
In The tyranny of merit: What’s become of the common good? (2020) Sandel diagnoses a relatively recent shift from the common good to a competitive meritocracy in Higher Education. The financialisation of economies, and changes of attitudes towards success have led to a divide between winners and losers. Finance has moved away from the greater good and rewards for all, towards enormous rewards for the few who work in finance, based on speculative finance, not the creation of valuable goods and services.
This has eaten away at the dignity of ordinary work. Rewards have become hopelessly imbalanced, buoyed up by meritocratic hubris and the success ethic. If chances are assumed to be equal or could be made equal, then those that flourish can attribute their success to personal agency, it is all down to their effort. This is what animates the meritocratic ideal. But social divides have deepened, aided by Higher Education, which induces a feeling that the winners, the graduate class, deserve their success and that the rest fail because it is their fault, which has led to one group looking down on the other. A side effect of this is a lack of respect for vocational skills and work.
The collapse of society, in my view, is far more likely to be a social collapse, or some totalitarian takeover a la Trump, Jinping or Putin, than climate change. That social collapse may come within decades due to not having enough people in rich societies to actually keep them functioning, fiscally or socially. The population pyramid is about to invert with more older than younger people, leaving less people to pay for the old, buy goods in the economy and the geopolitical consequences are frightening.

Friday, January 27, 2023

We've lit the fuse in fusion!


My business has been, and is, the future. I have literally built and helped businesses and organisations walk into the future, written four books on the future, predicted Trump victory in front of an audience at Trump’s alma mater in the US (not all futures are fun) on the night of his election, predicted Brexit, predicted the rise of online, now AI. After a lifetime, not of techno-determinism, but techno-optimism, seeing technology not as faultless but as something that makes life longer, more satisfying and easier, I was blown away by an even that took place on my birthday - Dec 5 2022.
Last night I watched Dougald Hines, of the Dark Mountain Project fame, who wants us to resign to our fate among the modern ruins of climate change and return to some sort of primitive world of poverty and self-loathing. He does however want you to buy his book and fly to a beautiful island in Greece for his conference this summer. To be fair he was articulate, then again so were most of the ascetics who turned the middle ages into the Dark Age with their self-hate and self-flagellation. Similarly with the Children’s crusade that is Greta and Extinction Rebellion, a priesthood who want to impose from. their position of privilege, a life of suffering on the already poor.
The thing that excited me and should have excites us all, but received scant news attention – was an event in ‘fusion’, the tech that promises huge amounts of cheap energy without emissions, waste or the risk of it being weaponised. We managed to light the fuse that is fusion.
People want climate change taught in schools, I’d prefer they taught it alongside science and fusion. Most rational beings agree that the future looks bad for the planet due to climate change and that we humans cause it. But there is a tendency for the extremes of both sides to exaggerate – the deniers and the doomsayers. I am optimistic because the FUSION story has just taken a jump forward.
What is fusion? Let’s start with E=MC2. Energy equals mass times the speed of light squared. This last number ‘C’ is very large and squared, therefore huge. So if we can take a tiny bit of mass and turn it into energy, a gargantuan amount of energy is produced. This already happens in fission (current nuclear power) and is the same physics applies to fusion. But fission and fusion are opposites. Fission splits particles, fusion melds particles together.
Fission takes Uranium and forces the atom apart to create energy, which forms a stable but controlled chain reaction, a la Diana Ross, to create heat and then electricity. If that chain reaction runs away, it forms a nuclear reaction, hence the eponymous nuclear bomb. There’s also waste, but not as much as you think and compared to other energy sources it is relatively safe and, importantly, emission free. We should be using it now, something the world has found literally to its, and our, cost.
Fusion does the opposite of fission. We take hydrogen particles, squeeze them until they are super dense, become unstable and release heat as they change state, we force the neutrons together, until they release huge amounts of heat. This is actually the source for almost all renewable energy, solar and wind as all sunlight comes from the sun, which is a huge fusion reactor. It is also safe, which is why a star is stable for billions of years, has no runaway effect, so can’t be weaponised and is emission free.
We are the children of fusion, as all ne elements arise from this fiery process in stars. Without fusion, there is no us, no evolution, no brains that can eventually harness the very power that created us.
Governments and huge amounts of private investment (astonishingly only $5 billion to date), along with research know-how, have come together and the first success was in California in the US , where they shot 192 lasers at a tiny diamond capsule and for a tiny moment created heat from fusion. For the first time they extracted a net gain from ignition. The crossed the first of several Rubicons.
We predict a 1.5-2 degree temperature rise by 2050, yet the predictions for fusion are coming in the range of early 2O30s to 2060s. The median seems to be mid 204Os, confirmed by this recent breakthrough. Even if it is late we’re on track to solve this problem by the dates mentioned in the Paris accord. Disaster is averted without hundreds of millions being plunged back into poverty. We’ve seen a touch of that future, as this year begins with huge energy bills and worldwide inflation. We live lives of relative comfort, largely free from the domestic labour that I remember even in my childhood, with automatic washing machines, dishwashers, lighting, heating and cooking facilities, TVs and computers. Most of us have cars, TVs, smartphones and the internet. All of this can be adequately fuelled when abundant electricity from pea size fuel sources comes on tap through fusion. We will have guaranteed cheap energy. Electric vehicles will be universal and we can build a world based, not on destruction, but hope and optimism.
The Greek Promethean myth, where Prometheus was handed fire by the Gods, and created hell on earth, washed through the concept of sacrifice in Christianity, the historical determinism of Marxism, the dysfunctional psychoanalysis of Freud and now the hair shirts of Extinction Rebellion. The planet has gone through five major geological extinctions, by climate change, one an asteroid.
This is not an extinction event. AI will herald unlimited smart technology to solve problems and fusion will solve the energy problem. The triumph of our species is our ability to think, solve problems and adapt. Copernicus threw us out of being the centre of the universe to an annual orbit around the sun, Darwin made us humble enough to accept that we were creatures among creatures. We found ourselves alone and Godless, but we are Homo sapiens, the knowing ape, and have realised that we must solve our own problems. It is our responsibility to save ourselves and build the future for ourselves.

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Slaughterhouse live - my first real job!

People in education and learning often imagine that everyone works in an office and is in need of hokey 'Leadership' training. Working people who do physical jobs, not on Zoom, are often written out of the narrative. I've had some of those jobs.

In fact, I’m always surprised when young people get to University or start their first job after graduating, having never worked. Sure paper rounds have gone the way of newspapers, and employing children is no longer easy but it’s part of growing up. More than school, college or any University, it’s your first honest encounter with real people and the real world.

What follows may seem like fiction but, believe me, every word is hard fact. I had a paper round for two years, delivering the Evening News (Pink on a Saturday) in a tough housing estate (scheme in Scotland) called Craigshill (affectionally called Crazyhill by those in the posher estates to the west). I also had to collect the money, which wasn’t easy, as my pay was a percentage of the takings. It is where we lived and seemed quite normal but nothing prepared me for my first real job. I was 16, still another year to go at school and I got work at Halls of Broxburn. It was a slaughterhouse.
Up early in those wet, dark mornings, it was five miles by bus. Nothing prepared me for what was coming. There were three of us and we were given white lab-like coats, tight greenish gloves, hair nets and black wellingtons. This seemed nice, I thought, almost clinical. In we went, pushing through big black plastic sheets that acted as doors and then the smell hit me. It was an indescribable concoction, a thick, meaty but also charnel and chemical smell. It smelt like hell.
Our first task was standing either side of the bandsaw, where huge, half carcasses of pigs were sliced up into great chunks, one to the left, the other the right – legs, loins, bellies and shoulders. The great chunks of flesh slid off into our hands and we packed them into big, white, plastic tubs. It was dangerous work and more than one of the old hands literally had an old hand that was missing a finger or two.
The butchers worked away on benches, skilled men, paring red meat from the bone. They moved quickly, knives flashing, tossing the shorn meat into vats. One later showed me the scars on his stomach, they all had them from knives that had, by accident, slipped. Every so often one would stop and sharpen the blade on a rough rod of steel. The noise was chilling.
A few days in, I knew something was up. I had already been sent for the left handed screwdriver and was now wary of these rituals but was told to go to the station at the far end of the slaughterhouse. This, I knew, was where the pigs were slaughtered. Pushing hard through two transparent flaps of plastic I saw a gruesome spectacle. Pigs came in, hung up by their back legs. They had been stunned. You could hear the shots, on the other side, great thuds but far worse, the horrific squeals. And here, right in front of me, they were having their throats cut. Out of the red slash on their throats thick spurts of blood pumped out, straight into big aluminium milk vats. It was a rite of passage for newbies like us and they enjoyed the idea of us weaklings having a heart of darkness moment. I mean that literally, as stunned but still living, their beating hearts pumped the blood out into the vats. This blood was later congealed, spiced and turned into black puddings. Three hundred pigs a day were slaughtered and moved around on a rail on the roof, hung up on chains by their back feet, a great cavalcade of carcasses, that wobbled, shivered, some still jerking.
I remember a pig escaped from the pens and was running around really fast, squealing. No one wanted to face up to it as it was big, strong and and was charging at people on the trot. It was eventually boxed in with moveable fences and sent back to its death. That was maybe the saddest moment of the whole experience, seeing that poor, terrified creature, witness its own fate.
Back on the bandsaws, my hands had developed sores, as the freshly cut bones had shards that cut through the plastic gloves into our palms. My hands stung when we had to pack the great chunks of loins and gammons into huge vats, filled with salt and nitrate liquid for curing.
Then one day another instruction. I was sent to the ‘burners’. I had no idea what this meant but was about to find out. The great parade of carcasses, once killed and bled, went through to another room. I had heard the noise, a roar every minute or so, regular like great waves hitting the shore and through the slit in the huge, black plastic doors, an orange glow. It looked and sounded like Dante’s Inferno. It was worse.
What I saw were vertical gas jets that roared out flames. They wrapped and licked round the hung carcass. This was to burn the hair off the pig. Pigs are a lot hairier than you think, great thick hairs. Once flamed the hairs singed and curled black and we had to step forward onto little platforms, stripped to the waist, and stand with great curved knives, a wooden handle on both ends, to scrape the burnt hair off in great long, downward strokes. But it was the smell I will never forget, that smell of singed hair you sometimes get when a candle perhaps brushes your hair. Imagine that multiplied by a thousand, a great sickly burning smell hanging in the air. I did this for a day. It was foul work.
At this point I was sure there was no worse job on earth than scraping burnt hair from the skin of still warm pigs. I was wrong. Again after a couple of days back on the bandsaws, my hands now pitted with bone cuts, I was sent to the ‘gut room’. I remember the guy with the Glasgow Rangers scarf, which he wore every day to work, like a cravat, grinning when I walked down toward the gut room.
There was an open door and on the left hand side of the door, a hatch, with what looked like a slide from a children’s playground that went down into the orange glow of the room below. A man stood next to the slide and split the carcass from head to toe, inserted his hand and knife deep inside the split to gather the insides with his arms, an enormous bulbous bundle of organs, then expertly pared and separated them off from the flesh and guided it on to the slide, where it slid silently down into the depths of the gut room.
I has been given huge galoshes and a big rubber apron. Why? Heaven knows, I didn’t. But I was about to find out. Stepping down the wooden staircase, there was a square room, like a cube. It was several inches deep in a sticky, yellowish liquid and in the middle there was a huge mangle. Once again, my forearm came automatically up to cover my nose. This time a sharp, metallic, acidic smell hit the back of my throat. It was the acid contents of stomachs, mixed with great piles of noxious shit from the intestines that were being squeezed out through the mangle. There was surely not a place, even in hell, as awful as this. I’ve yet to find one.
After several weeks of blood, shit, and I don’t mind admitting it - tears, I had made enough money to quit. It was twenty quid a week. My mother charged me rent, that was the deal back then. You work, you pay your way. Even then, I felt as rich as Croesus. Up to that point my experience of money had been entirely in coins. I now had notes!
It was the tail end of summer, so off I went on my own, an old rucksack with leather straps and hitch hiked round Scotland. I don’t think I’ve ever felt so free. The air smelt sweet, the hills spectacularly green. I stayed in youth hostels, walked from Inverness through beautiful Glen Affric to the Kyle of Lochalsh then on to Skye and Rasaay. My parents had no idea where I was - no smartphones then. I never looked back. It was too damn frightening to look back.

Sunday, January 22, 2023

OpenAI has opened up AI to the world but will it conquer the world?

We have been using GPT software since its launch in a range of learning tasks and in all three of these books, the idea of AI generating content among many other tasks is covered. It is not a matter of 'if' but when and how much the learning game will be transformed by AI.

AI is the new UI, as well as generating content, learner support, personalisation and assessment. It is leading to smarter platforms, smarter content and smarter forms of delivery.

OpenAI is worth around $30 billion. This doesn’t surprise me. It was set up as a philanthropic entity to create AI for the good of humankind. It has been true to that goal so far, creating some of the most astounding AI services we’ve ever seen. It worked because of its focus on hiring some of the best talent on the planet, funding it well and giving them clear goals.

 

It started with a $1 Billion investment in December 2015 by Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman, AWS, Infosys and YCResearch. It became a ‘capped-for=profit with a $1 Billion investment by Microsoft.

 

1. Microsoft has invested $1 billion but that deal is not exclusive, so OpenAI can do things for themselves and with others. This gives them the flexibility to do things either solo or in deals with others.

 

2. DALL-E became a global meme in image creation. It was the start of generative image AI that is going at an incredible speed. It is clear that this will have a major impact on image production, content production, even art. There is also Image GPT.

 

3. GPT-3 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is much larger than ChatGPT, with 175 billion parameters compared to ChatGPT's 20 billion parameters. This makes GPT-3 more powerful and capable of handling more complex natural language processing tasks.

 

4. ChatGPT-3 though, is a dialogue based LLM that was released to huge acclaim. It is truly disruptive as a text generator in areas such as content creation and assessment. It is rumoured that ChatGPT-4 will be released in 2023.

 

5. Whisper is speech recognition software, trained on a huge and diverse set of audio data. It can generate speech as well as translate and identify languages. 

 

6. OpenAI Five is a set of five bots that play on five on five games in Dota 2, a computer game. They also have GYM Retroa platform for RL research on video games. 

 

7. MuseNet has been trained to predict subsequent musical notes in MIDI music files to generate songs with ten different instruments in fifteen different styles.

 

In just a few years they have managed to create some of the world’s most advanced AI software. There is no guarantee that the existing large tech companies will not be challenged by the new. In fact, it is almost certain. Being small and focussed, well funded, with clear goals, can lead to stunning breakthroughs. Deepmind was a previous example in AI, there will be others.

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Amazon a story of how AI became the beating heart of a business

I have written about Amazon in all of my books but especially in 'AI for learning' and 'Learning Technology', as arguably the single largest digital disruptor on the planet. What they did was extraordinary, to take a bricks and mortar sector and turn it into a global, digital service. They have redefined retail, not just in books but for almost everything. They are also in digital services such as AWS. The deep technology behind all of this is AI. They are the masters at using customer focused AI, as well as manage and scale their business. 

  1. Amazon’s retail business is one great recommendation engine. Their product recommendations are on all services, focused on the home page. Their interface is finely tuned and personalised using AI. Bezos was fanatical about having AI as the new UI to improve customer performance, first with one-click but then hundreds of other small adjustments and services. Fed by data from their massive customer base it is constantly improving.
  2. Amazon Prime’s interface is AI and data driven, tiled and personalised, as is Amazon Music. It uses collective and individual data to recommend what you may want to watch, as well as promote Prime as a service. 
  3. Amazon put AI into the home with Amazon Echo - Alexa. They created the home device sector with machine learning text to speech and speech to text in a consumer setting.
  4. The hidden hand of AI optimises logistics, storage, waste packaging and delivery, a massive worldwide distribution service. They are the masters of logistics. Computer imaging is used in product selection in their warehouses. Their logistics also includes forecasting product needs and supply through predictive AI software. 
  5. AWS delivers broad and deep and pre-trained AI and ML services to their IT customers, more than any other cloud offering. They are number one, delivering. Others are; Microsoft, Google, IBM and Oracle, Alibaba and Tencent. Most companies will obtain AI capabilities through cloud-based enterprise software. 
  6. AWS is optimised using AI and is 16% of Amazon business but delivers 41.5% of the cloud computing market -- greater than all of its competitors combined -- Microsoft Azure (29.4%), Google Cloud (3.0%).

 

AI is the heart that beats within Amazon, the core technology behind all of its services. It is what drives them forward, increasing customer growth through better service and lower prices, as well as dominate cloud computing.

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Apple's strategy for AI is around device improvement

Apple is fundamentally a device company and has been investing in artificial intelligence for some time but is not in the same game as Microsoft and Google when it comes to LLMs like ChatGTPx and Sparrow. 

They are more about improving the performance for the consumer, step-by-step on used devices, rather than launching AI as service products. This is all about increased value in the consumer market for hardware. Indeed their focus on the design and manufacture of their own AI chips has been relentless.


However, they have a strategy and artificial intelligence is embedded everywhere in their products:  

  1. Built their own A13 Bionic Chipset, now found in their devices, putting algorithmic power in the devices themselves, the fastest CPU and GPU embedded in a smartphone.
  2. Integrated AI into many of its products, such as face recognition on its iPhones.
  3. Using machine learning to improve the performance through image processing on its iPhone cameras. Their AI chips include, for example, an image processing feature known as ‘Deep Fusion’ which uses machine learning to improve low to medium light photography,
  4. Siri, the personal assistant for iOS, iPadOS, watchOS, macOS, and tvOS uses AI to improve performance. It make Sirs pretty slick, especially on understanding prompts, recognising specific voices and translation.
  5. Heath apps such as exercise, sleep and dignostics use data and machine learning.
  6. Smart home devices will include AI, including face recognition on door cameras, that recognise who is at the door. 
  7. Hand washing countdown, digital car keys and many other real world tasks will be recognised through Apple devices.
  8. AI will be foundational in their AR glasses, rumoured to be released in 2023. 

Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Microsoft launched ChatGPT-3, but Google also have a great hand, in fact they have a bird in the hand...

Microsoft are holding a lot of great cards in the AI game, especially ChatGPT-3, but Google also have a great hand, in fact they have a bird in the hand: 

LamDA (language Model for Dialogue Applications) is Google's main LLM, branded as Bard. This has been in the wings for some time but will be launched soon.

Sparrow, from Deepmind, could also be launched soon. Their aim is to trump ChatGPT by having a chatbot that is more useful and reduces the risk of unsafe and inappropriate answers. In the released paper, they also indicate that it will have moral constraints. Smart move.


Hassabis has promised some sort of release in 2023.
Their goal is to reduce wrong and invented information by linking it to Google Search and Scholar for citations. Stating the source(s) is important to overcome the nervousness people have about the validity of the content. It may also frighten those who see these tools as blowing up citation-based assessment and hey may have a solution to this problem.

Google’s goal is a more laid back goal to build on Google Tools such as Search and Scholar to deliver factually correct text. They also have Lamda, remember the chatbot that a Google developer thought was sentient? RanBran , is AI deeply embedded inside tier search engine and they have acquired well.

To achieve this they want to use a form of reinforcement learning (RL) based on people's actual feedback, to improve performance. This is clever as it can determine whether output is adequate, needs more or even a citation.They also stress test the system by getting humans to break the system.

They recognise that real dialogue with trustworthy answers, requires additional rules that constrain that dialogue. The quickest way to determine those rules is from real human judgements.

Of course, OpenAI will release with ChatGPT-4, a product that is several orders of magnitude bigger than Chat GPT-3. Google are old hands, have the processing power to deliver and may want the ChatGTP to take the heat, then release afterwards. The stakes are high. The winner adds billions in value.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

7 reasons why Microsoft is winning the AI war

I have maintained for several years, including a book 'AI for Learning', that AI is the technology of the age and will change everything. This is unfolding as we speak but it is interesting to ask who the winners are likely to be.


The cigar goes to Microsoft. Google comes second... But first Microsoft: 

1. They were wise to pay $1billion for OpenAI in 2019 as that has already led to a massive multiple in value. The monetisation of these tools at volume is a certain winner and they have the computing power to deliver.

2. DALL-E now powers Bing Image Creator and is the start of something very big in images. This is starting to move towards the creation of video and 3D objects and worlds that gives edge in the Metaverse.

3. Then there's GPT functionality in Word, PowerPoint, Outlook, future proofing these office tools. This changes these from tools to powerful, generative job aids. It will help you write, design presentations and use spreadsheets with a significant increase in speed and quality.

4. Their ability to deliver via Teams is also possible. AI is already built into the platform. One can expect learning content to be one beneficiary.

5. They also own GitHub which has released the amazingly well received Copilot, increasing productivity in coding.

6. Valle also produces an AI voices. AI is the new UI.

7. Azure and associated services give them global and important edge computing delivery.